The fate of the Wagner mercenary group is not necessarily linked to that of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to Columbia University political scientist Prof Kimberly Marten.
The Wagner groups is a massive organisation that is “serving Russian interests very well,” Marten tells the BBC, especially in places like Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic.
Whether the organisation will exist in its current form or not, “the same members of that organisation will likely continue … their service to the Russian state by helping prop up authoritarian regimes, give military training, provide weapons, and so forth.”
“Prigozhin is not Wagner,” she says, and the mercenary group should not be mistaken for Prigozhin’s private military company.
She also says that one should take the Wagner chief’s relative exoneration and exile with a pinch of salt. She mentions the case of former Russian military officer and double agent Sergei Skripal, who was assassinated by Russian forces in 2018 despite being pardoned by Moscow.
“Putin doesn’t tend to forget who he calls traitors,” she says.
