Debate or no debate, Trump still commands the 2024 Republican race

Experts say Trump is acting more like an incumbent than a traditional candidate in a packed presidential primary field.

The third Republican debate of the 2024 United States presidential race came and went this week with a whimper.

The New York Times dismissed the event as “the undercard that underwhelmed”. The Washington Post cast it as “a lower-tier competition”. And The New Yorker brushed it aside as “an incredible waste of time for any but the most masochistic of Republican viewers”.

What prompted the withering criticism was the seeming insignificance of a debate without the Republican Party’s heaviest hitter, former President Donald Trump.

Now one year into his 2024 reelection campaign, Trump remains far and away the party frontrunner, trouncing his Republican rivals in seemingly every poll. Confident in his lead, he has skipped every Republican debate so far this election season.

Experts say this creates a novel dynamic: one where Trump is acting more like an incumbent than a candidate trying to unseat a sitting president.

“What’s unusual about this is there’s a former president, not a sitting president, who is dominating the field and skipping debates,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institute and author of the book Primary Politics.

Behind three glass podiums, three Republican candidates stand: Nikki Haley in a white suit set, Ron DeSantis in a dark suit and light-coloured tie and Vivek Ramaswamy in a dark suit and red tie. Ramaswamy and Haley speak and gesture, while DeSantis licks his lips. — Republican candidates Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy appear in a primetime Republican primary debate on November 8 in Miami, Florida [Mike Segar/Reuters]

Above the fray

Traditionally, in the US, the incumbent’s party never holds primary debates, even if other candidates from the same party enter the fray.

That is the case with current President Joe Biden. Though he faces Democratic challenges from long-shot candidates like Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips, he will not have to confront them on the debate stage.

The decision is largely a practical one. Incumbents have name recognition and a track record of success at the ballot box — and public spats within a party could dent the prospect of a repeat victory.

Where primary debates come in handy, however, is in establishing a frontrunner among challengers from the opposing party. But Trump, with his commanding grip on the Republican base, has eschewed mixing in with the rest of the Republican field.